My good friend Thomas Cook over at Blue Indiana is taking issue with Governor Mitch Daniels’ latest ad.  In it, Daniels says he balanced the budget without raising taxes.  Cook argues Daniels did raise taxes in the form of the sales tax, cigarette tax and increases in property taxes.

Since a lot of us are still recovering from last week, I’m willing to give the recent IU grad (congrats by the wya, Thom)  a pass on this one.  However, allow me to set a couple things straight.

Daniels’ claim is that he balanced THE STATE’S budget without a tax increase, which is accurate.  The Governor did not raise state taxes.  His adminstration held the line on spending.   Daniels’ opponents argue that he did that by balancing the state’s budget on the back of local governments by holding back property tax replacement revenue which led to the massive increase in last summer’s tax bills.  Actually that was only part of it, fundamentally what led to the increase in tax bills was the assessments and local government spending, which is where 99 percent of your property taxes go anyway.  And that sales tax increase was to help pay for property tax relief and the state’s assumption of a number of levies such as child welfare and police pensions.

The increase in the cigarette tax was part of a bi-partisan effort to provide health care to uninsured Hoosiers; something that has been a corner stone for my Democratic friends.

I do think the 2008 Governor’s race is going to a referendum on Daniels; as most re-election bids are.  And I think the Daniels’ folks should be worried about a year where change is the big theme and Democrats are expected to come out in droves. 

I also think Jill Long Thompson comes in with about 40-percent of the general electorate, but she os going to have to convince 11 extra percent that this state is going in the wrong direction.   And by the way, the race for the Governor’s office is going to be won or lost in Southern Indiana (Jill did well up north, Mitch is strong in central Indiana).

Either way, it’s going to be fun to watch.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels formally threw his support behind Valparasio Mayor Jon Costas for Attorney General.  In a letter dated May 11 to state Republicans Daniels called Costas a “proven vote-getter” and “progressive leader.”

More importantly, Costas is not from Indianapolis like his opponent, Greg Zoeller.  Although Zoeller is a Southern Indiana native, he is currently chief of staff for the current AG, Steve Carter and can be hit with the “Indianapolis” label.  In his letter Daniels said he shares concerns by many in the GOP that there should be geographical balance on the ticket and 75-percent of the state ticket should not come from the same part of Indiana.

The nominee to replace outgoing AG Steve Carter will be chosen at the State Republican convention on June 2.

I took a few days off after the primary to recharge the political batteries and it’s good to be back.

A lot of us are still dissecting Tuesday’s primary results and what they mean in the grand scheme of things. Although many of my colleagues will say high voter turnout was a good thing in this election (close to or exceeding the 2006 general election) I respectfully disagree.

I don’t think more participation is a good idea when the people coming out are voting for the wrong reason. I prefer a few smart people coming together to make a decision rather than a lot of stupid people. If the intellect of the voters are as high as the turnout then I’m excited. Otherwise, God save the Republic.

That also brings me to my next point which goes to the Limbaugh fans who participated in Operation Chaos, the Rush-inspired plan for Republicans and conservatives to vote in the Democratic primary in an effort to drag the fight to the convention floor, thus making the eventual nominee that much more vulnerable in the Fall.

I hope you know that by pulling a Democrat ballot in Indiana you are declaring your intent to vote for a majority of Democratic candidates in November. You could have been (and some were) challenged to sign an affidavit saying you had or will vote for a majority of Democrats in a past or future election.  If you don’t , you’re violating Indiana law. Now some of you might be saying there’s no way you would ever get caught so what difference does it make? Easy, it goes to the character issue you people keep harping on. Isn’t character defined as what you do when no one is looking and you won’t get caught?

It’s one thing if you pulled a Democrat ballot with the intent to vote for a majority of Democrats, later saw who won the primary and later changed your mind. But for many of the Operation Chaos participants they likely have no intent for voting for a majority of Democrats this Fall. So I for one find it totally ironic that the same people who go on and on and on about character, ethics and the rule of law apparently have no problem throwing those values out the window if they think they can get away with it. I won’t call them lawbreakers yet because they have until November to redeem themselves. But if they don’t they are no different than the people they criticize. Actually they’re worse because they’re hypocrites.

Open the floodgates and let the rationalization begin. This is going to be fun.

Jill Long Thompson is the Democratic nominee for Governor.  Jim Schellinger called her in the last half hour to concede.  Now the fun can really begin.  Mitch Daniels v. Jill Long Thompson v.  Andy Horning.  Who wins?

My sources tell me that Jim Schellinger isn’t ready to concede anything to Jill Long Thompson just yet.  The latest unofficial poll number show Thompson leading with 50.25 percent of the vote to Schellinger’s 49.75 percent.  However, Democratic sources say there are still provisional ballots that have yet to be counted as well as some uncounted precincts still out there.   They estimate a 3,000 vote difference between the two.  Could we have a Bush v. Gore problem on the horizon?  I hope so.  It makes for great punditry.

Wow, that was fun.  It’s been a while since I’ve seen a political nail-biter.  Hillary got a slim victory over Barack 51-49 (White men saved her while Blacks kept Obama competitive).  She needed a big win, but didn’t get it. Clinton only won by 22,412 votes out of 1.25 million voters or a 1.78 percent difference.   It’s like a student who needed a high “A” on his exam to pass the class, but instead got a “C-.”

Jill Long Thompson is sitting on a victory over Jim Schellinger in the Democratic Primary.  Two observations about that race were that in Marion County Schellinger won by less than 3 percentage points.  Had his margin been bigger, he would be declaring victory right now.  Also, Schellinger was the party favorite.  With his loss,  I can hear the bodies start to hit the floor over at One North Capitol in downtown Indianapolis.

Andre Carson is living proof the Carson name is a brand and still works.  However, there is a chink in the armor.  54 percent of  people who voted in that primary chose someone other than Carson.  If the GOP can figure out a way to capture that discontent, they just might be able to win the 7th one day.

And Dan Burton is living proof that you can never overstay your welcome.

Now that all this is over, I’m going to spend the next few days with a martini in one hand, a beautiful woman in the other and a cigar in my mouth.  And I might even switch them around a bit.

 See you next week.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Turnout continues to be high amongst Democrat voters and low amongst Republicans.  Also, the word on the street is that the Barack Obama campaign is challenging some voters across the state.  One of the latest is in Franklin 13 at the Lutheran High School where 10 voters were challenged and 8 decided not to vote and left.  Franklin 13 is also a precinct where they ran out of ballots.

Don’t forget your ID if you’re going to vote this afternoon.

If you’re planning to vote after work today leave a little early.  Marion County Clerk Beth White said the voting has been pretty heavy this morning and will likely be so this afternoon.  White said the voting in some parts of the city has been heavier than it was in the 2004 general election.  In 2004, the turnout was slightly more than 53 percent county wide.

She said voters may have had to wait, but no one has been turned away.  She says some precincts are running low on paper ballots  because of the high turnout and number of people requesting Democrat ballots.  She says they will get those ballots to the precincts this afternoon during the lull times, however don’t expect  any results anytime soon after the polls close at 6 p.m.

She says she doesn’t expect the votes to be completely tallied until late in the evening.

I’m noticing a trend this morning, for what it’s worth.  Republicans who are crossing over and voting for Hillary Clinton are also voting for Jill Long Thompson and Woody Myers for Congress.   They say they are doing it to stick it to the Democratic establishment.  It may not be enough to make a difference, but it definitely makes life interesting.

Today is the primary.  You know what to do so go do it.  Here are my predictions about today’s outcome and the reasons behind them.   You’re welcome to add your own.

Presidential - I say Barack by 2-3 points.  While Hillary leads in the Real Clear Average Poll and she has the mindles zombies participating in Operation Choas, I think the 160,000 new registered voters will be enough to put Barack over the top if they come out and participate today. 

Governor - I give this one to Jill Long Thompson.  Jim Schellinger’s campaign only came to life in the last couple weeks.  And Long Thompson has been ahead in just about every poll that’s been taken.  I give her the nod by 5.

7th District - I hate to disappoint the Andre Carson haters but I think he will pull this one off, also by about 5 points.  Had it been a two-person race between Carson and Myers, I think Myers would be able to score a clear win.  He may be able to eek out a victory by a  couple points, but I think the Carson-Obama connection puts Carson over the top by 5 over his challengers.

5th District - I don’t think change will come to the second most Republican District in the country.  Dan Burton will likely stay.  I think if Jon McGoff had more money and hit Burton earlier this would have been a different story.  The sliver lining in all this is that if there is a God, this will be Danny’s last term in office.

These are my predictions, but the caveat in all this is that it could change.  :-) 

Go vote and don’t forget your ID.